Angels Land Hamilton

At this point in free agency, it takes a lot to shock me when a big name signs. With that said, I am somewhat surprised by the Angels landing Josh Hamilton today with a five year 125 million dollar contract. After last offseason's spending spree bringing in C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols, plus the emergence of Mike Trout, I expected the Angels to focus on some arms to fill out their rotation but avoid making a big splash in free agency. That obviously was not the case, with this signing, and once again it looks like fantasy baseball in Los Angeles.

Hamilton's contract is not nearly as bad as the one the Angels gave to Pujols a year ago but it is just a case of committing to long to a player that does nothing for your biggest need. The Angels really needed to land a couple of solid starters this offseason. With Greinke going across town to the Dodgers, they were left with two starters with solid big league backgrounds on their roster. Not only did they sign Hamilton today but they also saw the Tigers keep the next best arm on the market, Anibal Sanchez. Now they will be left to throw too much money at Kyle Lohse and gamble on another starter or two.

There is no doubt that signing Hamilton gives the Angels a formidable lineup that is probably scarier than any other in baseball but I just feel like this will turn out to be a bad fit. Preventing runs is just as, if not more, important as scoring them. With Pujols and Trout, last season, the Angels didn't even get into the playoffs. Now, with two starters and three superstar bats, it will be surprising to see the Angels put together the type of rotation that you need to compete every day. If I was an Angel fan, I would be excited as hell to land Hamilton but once that high goes away there would certainly be a number of concerns.

The Loria Problem

With many baseball fans, executives, players, etc. upset about the Marlins/Blue Jays trade, Jeffrey Loria is really coming under fire. People are calling for him to be kicked out of baseball. After he threatened to move the Marlins out of Miami if the tax payers didn't help pay for a new stadium, promising to increase payroll if they complied, this action is seen as reprehensible by most. Loria held the city hostage, teased the fan base last winter, and is now ripping the big league club apart. There will probably be more moves and I am guessing that Giancarlo Stanton will be the lone recognizable name on the Marlins roster come opening day.

While the uproar and attention goes to Loria, once again, the real problem with the game is being ignored. Bud Selig has embarrassed and stained the game of baseball beyond words. From the labor wars to the  steroid era to the embarrassing acts of owners Selig is the man in charge and he is responsible for all of it. Removing Loria, a close friend of Selig's, won't fix this problem. The only solution, for the good of the game, would be for Selig to step down or be removed. Unfortunately, I am now convinced that he will be in office until he or the game dies.

For those who don't know, Loria is not the first friend of Selig's to embarrass the game. You don't have to go back far to find the last either. Frank McCourt, another friend, was a stain on the Dodgers franchise for five years before an ugly, public divorce finally got forced him to sell the team. Selig did a lot to get McCourt the Dodgers after his failed attempt to by the Red Sox. McCourt was just another stain on the game brought to you by Bud Selig.

Major League Baseball has a revenue sharing program that gives each team upwards of 120 million dollars annually. The rules of this agreement state that owners are required to reinvest most of this money into the baseball team. Selig continues to allow owners, like Loria to dance around those requirements and pocket money that is supposed to go into building up the game of baseball. As long as Selig is around, this will remain a problem. Loria has done this before, with the Expos and Marlins, and he will do it again. What is the purpose of getting rid of him if you are just going to allow another one of Selig's friends take over?

Affeldt Deal Finalized

With the completion of his physical, the Giants will finalize a 3 year 18 million dollar contract to retain the services of one of the best left handed setup men in the game, Jeremy Affeldt. Although six million a year may seem like a bit much, you can't under-estimate how valuable Affeldt is for the Giants. He has been one of the best in the game for the past 5-6 seasons and has never suffered any significant arm issues. Some have second guessed signing him until he is 36 but I expect his arm to hold up fine and I think that is well in line with what the market commands.

The Giants should also finalize a new contract for Marco Scutaro this week and when that is complete it will only leave Angel Pagan as the final unsigned critical component to this past season's title run. With the depth of the free agent outfield class, and Pagan's insistence on testing the market, I expect for this one to go unresolved for quite some time. The Giants have touched base with Nick Swisher but I strongly doubt they would bring him in without signing another outfielder as well. As for Hamilton, the Phillies have gotten a lot of attention as the team for him but I find that hard to believe unless they were to move Cliff Lee's contract.

Marlins and Blue Jays Trade

In another blockbuster deal, the Marlins are putting the finishing touches on dealing away all of the pieces from last winter's spending spree. According to reports, the fish will be dealing Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle to the Blue Jays for a good looking group of prospects and a couple of descent big leaguers. On the surface, this looks like a hell of a deal for the Blue Jays and one that could make them immediate contenders in the toughest division in baseball. However, if you dig a little bit deeper, you could find that they are making the same mistake that the Marlins did last winter by betting on stars rather than waiting for their team to come together.

Whether either side wins this trade will take years to decide but it certainly grabs your attention. This may be the first of a few major moves this winter with Justin Upton and Shin Soo Choo on the block as well. Much like the deal the Dodgers and Red Sox made last August this will grab a lot of attention and drive the media hype machine crazy about the Blue Jays. Yet, chemistry is something that can't be bought and is hard to place together. The Dodgers were a 500 baseball team for 2 and a half months before that deal and were the same for a month and a half after it. They were no better or worse, just more expensive.

What the Blue Jays actually got is a fantasy baseball superstar short stop that has yet to show any ability as a team leader. They also got a "number one starter when healthy" in Josh Johnson. I got news for everybody, a number one starter never comes with the tag, when healthy. If you can't rely on your number one for 200 plus innings a year then you are in some serious trouble. JJ has shown glimpses, even extended glimpses, of being the best pitcher in baseball but he is very unreliable and that is not a number one. They also got Mark Buehrle who is the most reliable piece of the deal but he should only be relied upon as a third or fourth starter and comes with the price of a number two. Emilio Bonafacio is a throw in that I think could work well for the Jays and John Buck goes back to Toronto where he had his best season in the majors.

While we will hear how great of a deal this was for the Jays, we can't judge it yet. It will be years before we can begin to evaluate the prospects the Marlins got. Sadly, I am pretty certain that they will do nothing to replace the payroll. It will be interesting, after this deal and the Red Sox trade a few months ago, to see how these trades impact free agency. Maybe owners will start to pull back a little bit on these outrageous contracts for very good players in free agency? Stars should still get paid (Pujols, Hamilton, Fielder, etc) but very good players (Pagan, Reyes, Buehrle, Lohse, B.J. Upton) should not be paid like superstars because the expectation level will never be met.

Around the League 11/12/12

It has been a quiet offseason so far but it will get more exciting soon. Thus far, there haven't been any big names signed. It seems as if, for now, more teams have expressed interest in the top pitcher Zack Greinke than the top hitter Josh Hamilton. Both will get great pay days and it will be interesting to follow all offseason long.

The general manager meetings last week did not produce much, aside from trade speculation. It now appears likely that the Diamondbacks will go into next year with a dramatically different outfield. They have already dealt Chris Young and continue to shop Justin Upton. Meanwhile, Shin Soo Choo appears likely to be traded at some point, either before the season or next summer, as he enters his final year of arbitration in Cleveland. He should be quite a bargain with an anticipated salary around 8 million. With a deep free agent class in the outfield, it might be best for the Indians to wait until next summer to shop their leadoff hitter.

Hyun-Jin Ryu is free to sign with the Dodgers, after they paid just under 26 million to his Korean team. When they get him signed, they will hope that the lefty can ultimately pitch somewhere in the middle of their rotation. His numbers in the Korean league are very strong and he has big league stuff. This certainly is an upgrade to a rotation that has many question marks, the biggest of which is the tender elbow of Chad Billingsley who is trying to avoid Tommy John surgery.

Vegas Odds for 2013 World Champions

Surprise, the Giants aren't the favorites to win next year. That is fine, until you see the teams favored ahead of them. The Tigers and Yankees are the two biggest favorites to win it all next year, then our Giants are third. There are some other teams I am intrigued by as well. Here are some of the odds I find interesting.

Detroit Tigers: 6/1
New York Yankees: 7/1
San Francisco Giants: 10/1
Texas Rangers: 12/1
Washington Nationals: 12/1
Los Angeles Angels: 12/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 14/1
Cincinnati Reds: 14/1
Atlanta Braves: 14/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 18/1
Tampa Bay Rays: 20/1 
Baltimore Orioles: 25/1
Milwaukee Brewers: 25/1
Oakland Athletics: 25/1
Houston Astros: 150/1 

If I had to rank them before, free agency, I would go with the following as the most likely.
Giants
Nationals
Angels
Braves
Rangers
Tigers
Reds
Cardinals
Rays
Brewers

The Yankees have to be the worst bet on the board, I don't see them winning for a number of years. They are as big of a mess as they have been in some time. So, let me know who you think are the top 3-5 contenders next year.

Free Agent Predictions

Well, we are into the Hot Stove Season now and many are predicting where various players will end up. So, I will go over a few of the various free agents myself and where I expect each to land.

• Josh Hamilton- Washington Nationals for 8 years and 175 million. In the age of ridiculously long contracts, I do expect the Giants to be one of the last teams standing for Hamilton but I think the Nationals will finally nail a huge free agent. The length will be ridiculous and I think that will take Sabean out of the mix.
• Zack Greinke- Baltimore Orioles for 6 years and 130 million. For those who don't know, Greinke suffers from an anxiety disorder and I am thinking that will keep him away from New York and Boston. The Orioles need an ace and I think Greinke will be a great fit for them.
• Michael Bourn-San Francisco Giants for 4 years and 50 million. I expect that the Giants will turn to Bourn when negotiations fail with Hamilton. With Bourn, they will land a solid leadoff hitter to anchor their deep lineup for the next several years.
• Kyle Lohse- Los Angeles Dodgers for 4 years and 50 million. The Dodgers will unquestionably be a big part of the Greinke sweepstakes but when they miss out, I expect them to settle for the next best starting pitcher on the market.
• Angel Pagan-Philadelphia Phillies for 5 years and 50 million dollars. I expect Pagan to be disappointed when the Giants flirt with the likes of Hamilton and Bourn and I think the Phillies will jump at the chance to land the second best leadoff hitter on the market.
• B.J. Upton- Atlanta Braves for 6 years and 100 million dollars. Upton has so many tools and that will attract suitors. This will likely come down to the Braves and Yankees and I think the Braves will win it with the length of the deal.
•  Ichiro Suzuki-Tampa Bay Rays for 2 years and 20 million. It is like musical chairs in the outfield and this seems like the spot for Ichiro, although I could easily see him back in New York.

Around the League 11/1/12

In my around the league section, I will cover my opinions on news that doesn't necessarily impact the Giants but they are opinions I have about various things going on around baseball at that time.

• Ervin Santana traded to the Royals who pick up the majority of his over paid salary. Let me be honest here, I like the Royals ball club. I am an admirer of the Rays because they built something the way I like to see something built, through the draft and player development. The Rays sucked for years but they took advantage of that by landing some marque players in the draft. Then they developed them well and turned their fortunes around by contending each of the past several years. 

The Royals looked to be going a similar rout by drafting great players at the top of the draft and developing superstars. However, they made the mistake of trading for Jonathan Sanchez last year and when that didn't work they traded for an even worse Sanchez this year. This will hurt their franchise that has a very limited budget. Luckily for them, it will only hurt for one year because it is a contract year for Ervin. I just don't get why these small market clubs take on exorbitant contracts that other teams sign. Hell, the Angels are shopping Vernon Wells, why not take him on too.

•  The rumored Dan Haren for Carlos Marmol trade never actually happened. This would have been a funny deal for me to see happen because the Angels feel Haren is over-payed and that is why they wanted to move him but, at just under ten million a year, I would argue that Marmol will be more over payed. Now Haren is a free agent and I guess the Cubs can target him and try to get something for Marmol somewhere else. Good luck though, Marmol was a beast in 2009 but has looked horrible since.
•  Michael Pineda of the Yankees is set to miss all of next year, according to various reports. This is hilarious to me, as a devout Yankees hater. Last winter the Yankees traded their best hitting prospect since Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, for Pineda. Pineda had a strong rookie season for the Mariners but it was mostly in the first half and in Safeco Field, so there was reason to question how sustainable it would be. Since then, Montero had a strong rookie year and it will be forever before Pineda makes his Yankee debut. Hell, I wonder if the Yankee fans will even recognize then name by the time they see him.